Active
Will the U.S. Congress introduce a Social Security reform bill before the end of the summer?
Volume~$90
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionAccording to the U.S. Social Security Administration, the Social Security Trust Fund could be completely depleted as early as the second quarter of 2033 - much earlier than previous projections. This is due to falling tax revenues and declining birth rates. If reform is not enacted, the funds will only be able to pay out 83% of mandated pensions and benefits. Opposition congressmen are demanding emergency measures to raise the retirement age for top managers and increase the tax on high incomes. The bet is on whether the House of Representatives will have time to formally register the first bipartisan bill to prevent fund bankruptcy before the end of the summer.
ConditionsYes: if, up to and including August 31, 2026, a bill to reform or change the funding of the Social Security Trust Fund is officially registered and published in the U.S. Congress.No: if no official text of the reform is published on the Congressional website by August 31, 2026.
Timeline
OpenedJun 9, 2026, 10:03 PM
Closes
Jun 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsSep 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 9, 2026, 10:03 PM
Closes
Jun 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsSep 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis19 BPCX
2
wEEd
wEEd16 BPCX
3
heySI1
heySI115 BPCX
4
ton_explore
ton_explore8 BPCX
5
BlitheWits
BlitheWits3 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
FirmGang
FirmGang15 BPCX
2
MMTrader
MMTrader13 BPCX
Active
Will the U.S. Congress introduce a Social Security reform bill before the end of the summer?
Volume~$90
DescriptionAccording to the U.S. Social Security Administration, the Social Security Trust Fund could be completely depleted as early as the second quarter of 2033 - much earlier than previous projections. This is due to falling tax revenues and declining birth rates. If reform is not enacted, the funds will only be able to pay out 83% of mandated pensions and benefits. Opposition congressmen are demanding emergency measures to raise the retirement age for top managers and increase the tax on high incomes. The bet is on whether the House of Representatives will have time to formally register the first bipartisan bill to prevent fund bankruptcy before the end of the summer.