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Will the Chinese Foreign Ministry demand that the U.S. return the $889 million seized from Guo Wenguo by July 28?
Volume~$1
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionAn American court ordered a convicted billionaire to pay $889 million in compensation as part of the forfeiture of his illicit assets. Beijing officials noted that Guo Wengui is wanted in China for economic crimes, and that most of the investors he defrauded are ethnic Chinese. Since there is no extradition treaty between the two countries, Chinese authorities will focus their efforts on recovering the capital. This bet asks you to predict whether the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs will issue an official public demand to Washington to transfer the confiscated millions to Beijing for payments to victims on the mainland in the second half of July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 16 and 27, 2026, an official representative of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announces at a press briefing that China is demanding or has submitted a request to U.S. authorities for the return or repatriation of the seized $889 million to China.No: if, by July 28, 2026, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not made any official public claims regarding this money.
Timeline
OpenedJul 1, 2026, 6:11 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 28, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJul 1, 2026, 6:11 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 28, 2026, 8:59 PM
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InsaneHammock
InsaneHammock1 BPCX
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Will the Chinese Foreign Ministry demand that the U.S. return the $889 million seized from Guo Wenguo by July 28?
Volume~$1
DescriptionAn American court ordered a convicted billionaire to pay $889 million in compensation as part of the forfeiture of his illicit assets. Beijing officials noted that Guo Wengui is wanted in China for economic crimes, and that most of the investors he defrauded are ethnic Chinese. Since there is no extradition treaty between the two countries, Chinese authorities will focus their efforts on recovering the capital. This bet asks you to predict whether the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs will issue an official public demand to Washington to transfer the confiscated millions to Beijing for payments to victims on the mainland in the second half of July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 16 and 27, 2026, an official representative of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announces at a press briefing that China is demanding or has submitted a request to U.S. authorities for the return or repatriation of the seized $889 million to China.No: if, by July 28, 2026, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not made any official public claims regarding this money.