Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the yuan rise above ₽12.50 in the second half of March?
Volume~$159
YES chance
DescriptionAs of February 26, the yuan is trading around ₽11.20. A seasonal increase in demand for the currency from government procurement and major importers is expected in mid-March 2026. If trading volumes on the Moscow Exchange rise amid a shortage of yuan liquidity, we could see a sharp upward surge. A rise to ₽12.50 (an increase of about 11%) is viewed by analysts as a moderately pessimistic scenario for the ruble amid falling oil prices.
Conditions"Yes: if, during the period from March 15 to March 25, 2026, the CNY/RUB exchange rate, according to data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (or the Moscow Exchange), reaches ≥ ₽12.50 at least once.
No: if, during the specified period, the exchange rate remains < ₽12.50 at all times."
Timeline
OpenedFeb 26, 2026, 6:24 PM
Closes
Mar 8, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedFeb 26, 2026, 6:24 PM
Closes
Mar 8, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
joS_edge
joS_edge60 BPCX
2
wEEd
wEEd15 BPCX
3
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis4 BPCX
4
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
MotileGiro
MotileGiro27 BPCX
2
MMTrader
MMTrader24 BPCX
3
buba
buba14 BPCX
4
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux14 BPCX
Event resultsView all
MotileGiro
boughtNoon a 27 BPCX
MMTrader
boughtNoon a 24 BPCX
buba
boughtNoon a 14 BPCX
ConicMalraux
boughtNoon a 14 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the yuan rise above ₽12.50 in the second half of March?
Volume~$159
DescriptionAs of February 26, the yuan is trading around ₽11.20. A seasonal increase in demand for the currency from government procurement and major importers is expected in mid-March 2026. If trading volumes on the Moscow Exchange rise amid a shortage of yuan liquidity, we could see a sharp upward surge. A rise to ₽12.50 (an increase of about 11%) is viewed by analysts as a moderately pessimistic scenario for the ruble amid falling oil prices.
Conditions"Yes: if, during the period from March 15 to March 25, 2026, the CNY/RUB exchange rate, according to data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (or the Moscow Exchange), reaches ≥ ₽12.50 at least once.
No: if, during the specified period, the exchange rate remains < ₽12.50 at all times."
Event resultsView all
MotileGiro
boughtNoon a 27 BPCX
MMTrader
boughtNoon a 24 BPCX
buba
boughtNoon a 14 BPCX
ConicMalraux
boughtNoon a 14 BPCX