Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the U.S. announce that it has established physical control over a nuclear facility in Iran by March 25?
Volume~$61
YES chance
DescriptionTrump called establishing control over enriched uranium a “wonderful goal.” This could be achieved either through a ground assault on a specific facility (such as Natanz) or through the surrender of the local garrison. This forecast tests the realism of the “security assurance” scenario: will Washington issue an official statement within the next two weeks announcing that its forces have established physical control over any of Iran’s key nuclear facilities?
ConditionsYes: if, by 23:59 on March 25, 2026, U.S. authorities announce that they have established physical control (the presence of their forces) over any Iranian nuclear facility.
No: if no such announcements are made by 11:59 p.m. on March 25, 2026.
Timeline
OpenedMar 7, 2026, 11:25 PM
Closes
Mar 18, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 7, 2026, 11:25 PM
Closes
Mar 18, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
buba
buba30 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux30 BPCX
2
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Event resultsView all
ConicMalraux
boughtNoon a 30 BPCX
LargoDewey
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the U.S. announce that it has established physical control over a nuclear facility in Iran by March 25?
Volume~$61
DescriptionTrump called establishing control over enriched uranium a “wonderful goal.” This could be achieved either through a ground assault on a specific facility (such as Natanz) or through the surrender of the local garrison. This forecast tests the realism of the “security assurance” scenario: will Washington issue an official statement within the next two weeks announcing that its forces have established physical control over any of Iran’s key nuclear facilities?
Event resultsView all
ConicMalraux
boughtNoon a 30 BPCX
LargoDewey
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX