Active
Will Brent crude break through the $85 mark amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by July 5?
Volume~$48
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionThe conflict that has erupted in the Middle East has entered a critical phase: Iran has announced that it is blocking the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S. violating the terms of the peace agreement. A huge proportion of global hydrocarbon shipments pass through this route. Despite statements from the White House that tankers are continuing to operate, the risk of the waterway being mined is putting significant pressure on the commodities market. Brent crude is currently trading around $80.62 per barrel. Speculators are actively pricing in a risk premium, which could trigger a sharp spike in fuel prices. The question is whether Brent crude will be able to break through a key price barrier in early July.
ConditionsYes: if, during the period from July 1 to July 5, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil futures on the ICE exchange reaches ≥ $85.00 per barrel at least once.
No: if, during the period from July 1 to July 5, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil futures on the ICE exchange remains strictly below $85.00 per barrel at all times.
Timeline
OpenedJun 20, 2026, 6:48 PM
Closes
Jun 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 6, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 20, 2026, 6:48 PM
Closes
Jun 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 6, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
ShrillManipur
ShrillManipur24 BPCX
2
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux1 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
InsaneHammock
InsaneHammock23 BPCX
Active
Will Brent crude break through the $85 mark amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by July 5?
Volume~$48
DescriptionThe conflict that has erupted in the Middle East has entered a critical phase: Iran has announced that it is blocking the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S. violating the terms of the peace agreement. A huge proportion of global hydrocarbon shipments pass through this route. Despite statements from the White House that tankers are continuing to operate, the risk of the waterway being mined is putting significant pressure on the commodities market. Brent crude is currently trading around $80.62 per barrel. Speculators are actively pricing in a risk premium, which could trigger a sharp spike in fuel prices. The question is whether Brent crude will be able to break through a key price barrier in early July.
ConditionsYes: if, during the period from July 1 to July 5, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil futures on the ICE exchange reaches ≥ $85.00 per barrel at least once.
No: if, during the period from July 1 to July 5, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil futures on the ICE exchange remains strictly below $85.00 per barrel at all times.