Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will a ceasefire between Ethiopia and Sudan be announced by March 12?
Volume~$1
YES chance
DescriptionAgainst the backdrop of the first direct accusations of UAV use (February–March 2026), tensions between the countries reached a critical point. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) declared their readiness to defend the territory by all means available. Given the lack of an immediate response from Addis Ababa and reports of RSF forces on the Ethiopian side, a swift diplomatic de-escalation is unlikely. The focus is now on whether the parties will manage to officially declare a ceasefire or de-escalation within the coming week.
Conditions"Yes: if, by 11:59 p.m. on March 12, 2026, the official authorities of both countries (the foreign ministries or the heads of state) announce a ceasefire agreement.
No: if no official agreement has been reached by 11:59 p.m. on March 12, 2026."
Timeline
OpenedMar 4, 2026, 11:57 AM
Closes
Mar 5, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 13, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 4, 2026, 11:57 AM
Closes
Mar 5, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 13, 2026, 8:59 PM
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1
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Event resultsView all
LargoDewey
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will a ceasefire between Ethiopia and Sudan be announced by March 12?
Volume~$1
DescriptionAgainst the backdrop of the first direct accusations of UAV use (February–March 2026), tensions between the countries reached a critical point. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) declared their readiness to defend the territory by all means available. Given the lack of an immediate response from Addis Ababa and reports of RSF forces on the Ethiopian side, a swift diplomatic de-escalation is unlikely. The focus is now on whether the parties will manage to officially declare a ceasefire or de-escalation within the coming week.
Event resultsView all
LargoDewey
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX