Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) impose the first official fines for advertising on Telegram by March 25?
Volume~$41
YES chance
DescriptionFollowing the FAS’s announcement of a de facto ban on advertising on Telegram due to its status as a “restricted platform,” the agency is expected to move forward with enforcement actions. Any posts in channels could serve as grounds for fines, even if they include tokens (ERID). This forecast tests the responsiveness of regulatory authorities: will a decision to impose an administrative fine on a major advertiser or blogger for placing ads in the messaging app be officially published by the end of March?
Conditions"Yes: if, by 23:59 on March 25, 2026, confirmed information appears on the FAS official website or in the media regarding the imposition of the first fine for advertising on Telegram under the new interpretation of the law.
No: if no official reports of fines under this provision are received by 11:59 p.m. on March 25, 2026."
Timeline
OpenedMar 5, 2026, 7:23 PM
Closes
Mar 10, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 5, 2026, 7:23 PM
Closes
Mar 10, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux20 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
ton_explore
ton_explore20 BPCX
2
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Event resultsView all
ton_explore
boughtNoon a 20 BPCX
LargoDewey
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) impose the first official fines for advertising on Telegram by March 25?
Volume~$41
DescriptionFollowing the FAS’s announcement of a de facto ban on advertising on Telegram due to its status as a “restricted platform,” the agency is expected to move forward with enforcement actions. Any posts in channels could serve as grounds for fines, even if they include tokens (ERID). This forecast tests the responsiveness of regulatory authorities: will a decision to impose an administrative fine on a major advertiser or blogger for placing ads in the messaging app be officially published by the end of March?
Conditions"Yes: if, by 23:59 on March 25, 2026, confirmed information appears on the FAS official website or in the media regarding the imposition of the first fine for advertising on Telegram under the new interpretation of the law.
No: if no official reports of fines under this provision are received by 11:59 p.m. on March 25, 2026."
Event resultsView all
ton_explore
boughtNoon a 20 BPCX
LargoDewey
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX