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Will the number of regions under a state of emergency due to wildfires exceed 8 by mid-July?
Volume~$6
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionThe abnormal subtropical heatwave that has scorched Europe has now firmly taken hold across regions of Russia. As of the end of June, a state of emergency has already been officially declared in four regions of the Russian Federation due to large-scale wildfires. Forecasters warn that dry and windy weather in the first half of July will only exacerbate the situation in Siberia and the Far East. The question is whether the scale of this natural disaster will increase to the point that regions will have to implement emergency measures on a massive scale, and whether the total number of Russian regions with an active state of emergency in their forests will exceed eight.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 15 and 25, 2026, the Federal Forest Fire Service or the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation officially records that a state of emergency due to forest fires is simultaneously in effect in the territory of 9 or more constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
No: if, during the specified reference period, the total number of regions of the Russian Federation with an active state of emergency in their forests remains consistently at 8 or fewer.
Timeline
OpenedJun 26, 2026, 4:48 PM
Closes
Jul 14, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 26, 2026, 4:48 PM
Closes
Jul 14, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
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joS_edge
joS_edge6 BPCX
Active
Will the number of regions under a state of emergency due to wildfires exceed 8 by mid-July?
Volume~$6
DescriptionThe abnormal subtropical heatwave that has scorched Europe has now firmly taken hold across regions of Russia. As of the end of June, a state of emergency has already been officially declared in four regions of the Russian Federation due to large-scale wildfires. Forecasters warn that dry and windy weather in the first half of July will only exacerbate the situation in Siberia and the Far East. The question is whether the scale of this natural disaster will increase to the point that regions will have to implement emergency measures on a massive scale, and whether the total number of Russian regions with an active state of emergency in their forests will exceed eight.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 15 and 25, 2026, the Federal Forest Fire Service or the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation officially records that a state of emergency due to forest fires is simultaneously in effect in the territory of 9 or more constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
No: if, during the specified reference period, the total number of regions of the Russian Federation with an active state of emergency in their forests remains consistently at 8 or fewer.