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Will Armenia hold a referendum on withdrawing from the EAEU by July 31?
Volume~$18
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionArmenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has publicly stated that if restrictions on the free movement of goods within the EAEU are not resolved, the collapse of the union will be inevitable. At the same time, the union’s partners have called on Yerevan to make a final decision between the EAEU and the path toward European integration, which was proposed after the country’s parliament passed a law in the spring of 2026 to begin the process of joining the EU. The union’s leaders have proposed that Armenia hold a nationwide referendum. The question is whether the country’s authorities will take an official legal step to withdraw from the union by the end of July amid this protracted dispute.
ConditionsYes: if, by July 31, 2026, the Armenian authorities officially announce the date of a referendum on withdrawal from the EAEU or on European integration, or sign a law on withdrawal from the union, as confirmed by reports from RBC or TASS.No: if, as of July 31, 2026, Armenia retains its current status as a member of the EAEU without officially setting a date for a referendum on this issue.
Timeline
OpenedJun 25, 2026, 11:36 AM
Closes
Jul 10, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 25, 2026, 11:36 AM
Closes
Jul 10, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
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NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis18 BPCX
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Will Armenia hold a referendum on withdrawing from the EAEU by July 31?
Volume~$18
DescriptionArmenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has publicly stated that if restrictions on the free movement of goods within the EAEU are not resolved, the collapse of the union will be inevitable. At the same time, the union’s partners have called on Yerevan to make a final decision between the EAEU and the path toward European integration, which was proposed after the country’s parliament passed a law in the spring of 2026 to begin the process of joining the EU. The union’s leaders have proposed that Armenia hold a nationwide referendum. The question is whether the country’s authorities will take an official legal step to withdraw from the union by the end of July amid this protracted dispute.
ConditionsYes: if, by July 31, 2026, the Armenian authorities officially announce the date of a referendum on withdrawal from the EAEU or on European integration, or sign a law on withdrawal from the union, as confirmed by reports from RBC or TASS.No: if, as of July 31, 2026, Armenia retains its current status as a member of the EAEU without officially setting a date for a referendum on this issue.