Awaiting summarization
Will the EU impose a total travel ban on Russians who have served in the army in the second half of June?
Volume~$97
YES chance
DescriptionAs part of the discussion of the new 21st package of sanctions, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, came up with an unprecedented initiative. She proposed to completely ban all Russian citizens who have served in the Russian Armed Forces since the beginning of the special military operation from entering the European Union. A number of European diplomats have expressed doubts about the legal enforceability and mechanisms for verifying such a ban. The bet is on whether this radical norm will be officially adopted and approved in the EU's final document by the end of June.
ConditionsYes: if in the period from June 16 to June 30, 2026 the EU official structures publish and approve a decision to ban all categories of Russian citizens who have served in the Russian Armed Forces since the beginning of the conflict from entering the EU.No: if by June 30, 2026 inclusive, the norm in such a total form will not be approved by the EU Council and the wording not included in the final documents will be softened or excluded.
Timeline
OpenedJun 9, 2026, 8:00 PM
Closes
Jun 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 9, 2026, 8:00 PM
Closes
Jun 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux21 BPCX
2
ShrillManipur
ShrillManipur21 BPCX
3
BlitheWits
BlitheWits18 BPCX
4
ton_explore
ton_explore14 BPCX
5
joS_edge
joS_edge12 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
M171YM
M171YM7 BPCX
2
InsaneHammock
InsaneHammock3 BPCX
3
HarshGuest
HarshGuest1 BPCX
Awaiting summarization
Will the EU impose a total travel ban on Russians who have served in the army in the second half of June?
Volume~$97
DescriptionAs part of the discussion of the new 21st package of sanctions, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, came up with an unprecedented initiative. She proposed to completely ban all Russian citizens who have served in the Russian Armed Forces since the beginning of the special military operation from entering the European Union. A number of European diplomats have expressed doubts about the legal enforceability and mechanisms for verifying such a ban. The bet is on whether this radical norm will be officially adopted and approved in the EU's final document by the end of June.
ConditionsYes: if in the period from June 16 to June 30, 2026 the EU official structures publish and approve a decision to ban all categories of Russian citizens who have served in the Russian Armed Forces since the beginning of the conflict from entering the EU.No: if by June 30, 2026 inclusive, the norm in such a total form will not be approved by the EU Council and the wording not included in the final documents will be softened or excluded.
Event results
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