Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will Saudi Arabia launch a military strike against Iran before March 10?
Volume~$20
YES chance
DescriptionFollowing the drone attack on the Ras Tanura oil refinery on March 2, Riyadh placed its armed forces on full combat alert. Saudi Arabia had previously stated that it would respond to a direct strike on its oil infrastructure with an attack on Iranian targets. This forecast assesses whether the Kingdom will enter into direct military conflict with Iran (by launching an air or missile strike) within the next week in retaliation.
Conditions"Yes: if, by March 10, 2026, the Saudi Arabian armed forces officially launch a military strike against Iranian territory.
No: if there is no direct military intervention by Saudi Arabia by March 10, 2026."
Timeline
OpenedMar 2, 2026, 11:14 PM
Closes
Mar 5, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 11, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 2, 2026, 11:14 PM
Closes
Mar 5, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 11, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
LeeryFaust
LeeryFaust15 BPCX
2
MMTrader
MMTrader2 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
BlitheWits
BlitheWits2 BPCX
2
TimedStray
TimedStray1 BPCX
Event resultsView all
BlitheWits
boughtNoon a 2 BPCX
TimedStray
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will Saudi Arabia launch a military strike against Iran before March 10?
Volume~$20
DescriptionFollowing the drone attack on the Ras Tanura oil refinery on March 2, Riyadh placed its armed forces on full combat alert. Saudi Arabia had previously stated that it would respond to a direct strike on its oil infrastructure with an attack on Iranian targets. This forecast assesses whether the Kingdom will enter into direct military conflict with Iran (by launching an air or missile strike) within the next week in retaliation.
Event resultsView all
BlitheWits
boughtNoon a 2 BPCX
TimedStray
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX