Completed
The winning outcome:
YES
A New Wave of Attacks on Iran by Mid-March?
Volume~$57
YES chance
DescriptionDespite the rhetoric about negotiations, Trump emphasized in an interview that “a lot of bombs are falling” on the region. The current tension in relations remains critical. Against the backdrop of statements that many of the previous negotiators “walked away because of major strikes,” the risk of escalation persists. Military analysts assess the likelihood of new strikes on Iranian military targets or those of proxy forces as high if the terms of the deal are not accepted immediately. The question is whether global news agencies (Reuters, Bloomberg) will report new massive attacks in the next two weeks.
ConditionsYes: if new waves of missile or air strikes on Iranian territory are officially recorded between March 2 and 15, 2026.
No: if no new large-scale attacks are recorded between March 2 and 15, 2026 (the current status quo remains).
Timeline
OpenedMar 1, 2026, 4:42 PM
Closes
Mar 4, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 16, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 1, 2026, 4:42 PM
Closes
Mar 4, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 16, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
FirmGang
FirmGang10 BPCX
2
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
BlitheWits
BlitheWits25 BPCX
2
MotileGiro
MotileGiro21 BPCX
Event resultsView all
FirmGang
boughtYeson a 10 BPCX
LargoDewey
boughtYeson a 1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
YES
A New Wave of Attacks on Iran by Mid-March?
Volume~$57
DescriptionDespite the rhetoric about negotiations, Trump emphasized in an interview that “a lot of bombs are falling” on the region. The current tension in relations remains critical. Against the backdrop of statements that many of the previous negotiators “walked away because of major strikes,” the risk of escalation persists. Military analysts assess the likelihood of new strikes on Iranian military targets or those of proxy forces as high if the terms of the deal are not accepted immediately. The question is whether global news agencies (Reuters, Bloomberg) will report new massive attacks in the next two weeks.
Event resultsView all
FirmGang
boughtYeson a 10 BPCX
LargoDewey
boughtYeson a 1 BPCX