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Will the IKI RAS detect a new Class X solar flare by July 28?
Volume~$19
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionA solar flare of the highest class, X1.1, has been recorded on the Sun, caused by an unusually large sunspot group, No. 4478. Scientists at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences warn that this active region continues to grow rapidly and that the Sun’s “guns” are now pointed directly at Earth. Against the backdrop of the current peak of the 25th solar cycle, the accumulated energy could be released in the form of a series of even more powerful eruptions. This bet challenges you to predict whether the sun’s activity will reach the highest X-class intensity again in the second half of July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 16 and 27, 2026, the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at the Institute of Space Research (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences officially records at least one solar flare of the highest energy class (Class X of any intensity from X1 and above) on the Sun.No:
Timeline
OpenedJul 1, 2026, 4:43 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 28, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJul 1, 2026, 4:43 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 28, 2026, 8:59 PM
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heySI1
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Will the IKI RAS detect a new Class X solar flare by July 28?
Volume~$19
DescriptionA solar flare of the highest class, X1.1, has been recorded on the Sun, caused by an unusually large sunspot group, No. 4478. Scientists at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences warn that this active region continues to grow rapidly and that the Sun’s “guns” are now pointed directly at Earth. Against the backdrop of the current peak of the 25th solar cycle, the accumulated energy could be released in the form of a series of even more powerful eruptions. This bet challenges you to predict whether the sun’s activity will reach the highest X-class intensity again in the second half of July.