Active
Will the United Kingdom sell the oil from the seized tanker Smyrtos by July 31?
Volume~$94
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionA complex legal battle is unfolding over the Smyrtos, a tanker seized by the United Kingdom. The Kremlin has strongly condemned London’s plans to sell the cargo, but the British National Crime Agency (NCA) is still conducting its investigation. The legal mechanism for putting the oil up for auction has not been determined, and a key court hearing in the case of the ship’s captain is scheduled for July 16. This completely rules out any action by the authorities in the first half of the month. The question is whether London will be able to promptly launch the auction process and sell the confiscated crude oil within two weeks of the court’s decision.
ConditionsYes: if, by July 31, 2026, the United Kingdom officially auctions or sells the oil from the Smyrtos tanker to the private sector or private companies, as confirmed by reports from RBC, TASS, or Reuters.No: if, as of July 31, 2026, the oil from the Smyrtos tanker has not been sold (it remains under arrest, is blocked in ports, or the investigation is prolonged).
Timeline
OpenedJun 25, 2026, 11:48 AM
Closes
Jul 10, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 25, 2026, 11:48 AM
Closes
Jul 10, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
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Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
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User
Vol.
1
FirmGang
FirmGang30 BPCX
2
ton_explore
ton_explore24 BPCX
3
BlitheWits
BlitheWits8 BPCX
Voted for NO
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User
Vol.
1
MotileGiro
MotileGiro21 BPCX
2
TimedStray
TimedStray10 BPCX
3
GlossyNahum
GlossyNahum1 BPCX
Active
Will the United Kingdom sell the oil from the seized tanker Smyrtos by July 31?
Volume~$94
DescriptionA complex legal battle is unfolding over the Smyrtos, a tanker seized by the United Kingdom. The Kremlin has strongly condemned London’s plans to sell the cargo, but the British National Crime Agency (NCA) is still conducting its investigation. The legal mechanism for putting the oil up for auction has not been determined, and a key court hearing in the case of the ship’s captain is scheduled for July 16. This completely rules out any action by the authorities in the first half of the month. The question is whether London will be able to promptly launch the auction process and sell the confiscated crude oil within two weeks of the court’s decision.
ConditionsYes: if, by July 31, 2026, the United Kingdom officially auctions or sells the oil from the Smyrtos tanker to the private sector or private companies, as confirmed by reports from RBC, TASS, or Reuters.No: if, as of July 31, 2026, the oil from the Smyrtos tanker has not been sold (it remains under arrest, is blocked in ports, or the investigation is prolonged).