Completed
The winning outcome:
YES
Will there be at least 20 new attacks from Iran by the end of the week?
Volume~$60
YES chance
DescriptionFollowing the death of its top leadership, Iran has shifted to a strategy of decentralized responses, attacking targets in Israel, the UAE, and U.S. bases in the region. According to reports, the intensity of missile and kamikaze drone launches remains high, despite U.S. forces controlling the airspace. Iranian proxy forces and remnants of the IRGC’s regular units continue to respond to Trump’s “major wave of strikes.” The question is whether Tehran will maintain this high rate of fire (averaging more than 4–5 incidents per day) through the end of the week.
Conditions"Yes: if, during the period from March 3, 2026, to March 8, 2026, there are ≥ 20 officially confirmed instances of shelling (missile or UAV launches) from Iranian territory or by forces under its control targeting external targets.
No: if the number of confirmed attacks during this period is < 20."
Timeline
OpenedMar 2, 2026, 11:09 PM
Closes
Mar 5, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 9, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 2, 2026, 11:09 PM
Closes
Mar 5, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 9, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
LeeryFaust
LeeryFaust55 BPCX
2
FirmGang
FirmGang2 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
heySI1
heySI12 BPCX
2
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
YES
Will there be at least 20 new attacks from Iran by the end of the week?
Volume~$60
DescriptionFollowing the death of its top leadership, Iran has shifted to a strategy of decentralized responses, attacking targets in Israel, the UAE, and U.S. bases in the region. According to reports, the intensity of missile and kamikaze drone launches remains high, despite U.S. forces controlling the airspace. Iranian proxy forces and remnants of the IRGC’s regular units continue to respond to Trump’s “major wave of strikes.” The question is whether Tehran will maintain this high rate of fire (averaging more than 4–5 incidents per day) through the end of the week.
Conditions"Yes: if, during the period from March 3, 2026, to March 8, 2026, there are ≥ 20 officially confirmed instances of shelling (missile or UAV launches) from Iranian territory or by forces under its control targeting external targets.
No: if the number of confirmed attacks during this period is < 20."
Event resultsView all
LeeryFaust
boughtYeson a 55 BPCX
FirmGang
boughtYeson a 2 BPCX