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Will the Lithuanian Seimas pass an amendment on the deployment of nuclear weapons by the end of 2026?
Volume~$26
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionAn initiative by the leaders of Lithuania’s parliamentary factions to remove the ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons and foreign military bases from the Constitution has caused a huge stir in the CIS. If successful, Lithuania will pave the way for participation in NATO’s Nuclear Sharing program. However, constitutional reform is an extremely complex process: the Seimas must approve the draft twice, with a mandatory three-month interval between votes, securing at least a two-thirds majority (94 out of 141) each time. The risks are high: the initiative could stall in committee or fail entirely as early as the first vote. The question is whether the Lithuanian parliament will be able to officially adopt this constitutional amendment by the end of the year.
ConditionsYes: if, on or before December 31, 2026, the Lithuanian Parliament (Seimas) officially adopts and ratifies a constitutional amendment lifting the ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons and foreign military bases (after passing all necessary voting stages).
No: if, by December 31, 2026, inclusive, the Lithuanian Seimas does not adopt this amendment (it is rejected at any stage, sent back for revision, or the ratification process is postponed until 2027).
Timeline
OpenedJul 2, 2026, 3:20 PM
Closes
Sep 1, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJan 10, 2027, 8:59 PM
OpenedJul 2, 2026, 3:20 PM
Closes
Sep 1, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJan 10, 2027, 8:59 PM
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NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis26 BPCX
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Active
Will the Lithuanian Seimas pass an amendment on the deployment of nuclear weapons by the end of 2026?
Volume~$26
DescriptionAn initiative by the leaders of Lithuania’s parliamentary factions to remove the ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons and foreign military bases from the Constitution has caused a huge stir in the CIS. If successful, Lithuania will pave the way for participation in NATO’s Nuclear Sharing program. However, constitutional reform is an extremely complex process: the Seimas must approve the draft twice, with a mandatory three-month interval between votes, securing at least a two-thirds majority (94 out of 141) each time. The risks are high: the initiative could stall in committee or fail entirely as early as the first vote. The question is whether the Lithuanian parliament will be able to officially adopt this constitutional amendment by the end of the year.
ConditionsYes: if, on or before December 31, 2026, the Lithuanian Parliament (Seimas) officially adopts and ratifies a constitutional amendment lifting the ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons and foreign military bases (after passing all necessary voting stages).
No: if, by December 31, 2026, inclusive, the Lithuanian Seimas does not adopt this amendment (it is rejected at any stage, sent back for revision, or the ratification process is postponed until 2027).