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Completed
The winning outcome:
NO

Will Trump and Iran reach a truce agreement by the end of March?

Volume~$18
Political
Social networks
YES chance
DescriptionDonald Trump’s statement that Iran “wants to talk” and that he “agreed to it” sparked a wave of expectations for an imminent ceasefire. Trump openly criticizes protracted conflicts, calling them “strikes,” and emphasizes that a deal could have been reached even earlier. With strikes continuing across the region, the administration may move to sign a preliminary memorandum on a ceasefire or a “freeze” on hostilities within the next 20 days. The question is whether a ceasefire will be officially announced or a de-escalation agreement signed.
ConditionsYes: if, between March 1 and March 31, 2026, the parties officially announce a truce, a ceasefire, or the signing of a peace agreement. No: if no official armistice document has been signed by March 31, 2026, and hostilities continue.
Verification source
Timeline
OpenedMar 1, 2026, 4:44 PM
Closes
Mar 9, 2026, 8:59 PM
Checking results
—
EndsApr 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 1, 2026, 4:44 PM
Closes
Mar 9, 2026, 8:59 PM
Checking results
—
EndsApr 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
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#
User
Vol.
1
MMTrader
MMTrader
17 BPCX
2
LargoDewey
LargoDewey
1 BPCX
Event resultsView all
MMTrader+17 BPCX
boughtNoon a 17 BPCX
LargoDewey+1 BPCX
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO

Will Trump and Iran reach a truce agreement by the end of March?

Volume~$18
Political
Social networks
DescriptionDonald Trump’s statement that Iran “wants to talk” and that he “agreed to it” sparked a wave of expectations for an imminent ceasefire. Trump openly criticizes protracted conflicts, calling them “strikes,” and emphasizes that a deal could have been reached even earlier. With strikes continuing across the region, the administration may move to sign a preliminary memorandum on a ceasefire or a “freeze” on hostilities within the next 20 days. The question is whether a ceasefire will be officially announced or a de-escalation agreement signed.
ConditionsYes: if, between March 1 and March 31, 2026, the parties officially announce a truce, a ceasefire, or the signing of a peace agreement. No: if no official armistice document has been signed by March 31, 2026, and hostilities continue.
Verification source
Event resultsView all
MMTrader+17 BPCX
boughtNoon a 17 BPCX
LargoDewey+1 BPCX
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX