Awaiting summarization
Will trade between the U.S. and Russia be officially resumed by the end of the year?
Volume~$193
YES chance
DescriptionVance’s statement regarding Trump’s intention to “resume trade” with Russia points to a possible revision of the sanctions regime should progress be made on the Ukraine front. The first easing of restrictions on the oil sector in March 2026 has already set a precedent. This forecast examines whether this strategy will lead to the official lifting or significant easing of trade restrictions (such as the resumption of civilian goods exports or the lifting of the embargo on key resources) by the end of 2026.
Conditions"Yes: if, by December 31, 2026 (inclusive), the United States officially lifts or suspends at least one set of major economic sanctions against the Russian Federation that impede bilateral trade.
No: if, by the end of 2026, the comprehensive U.S. trade sanctions regime against Russia remains in effect without change."
Timeline
OpenedMar 14, 2026, 10:09 PM
Closes
May 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJan 1, 2027, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 14, 2026, 10:09 PM
Closes
May 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJan 1, 2027, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux21 BPCX
2
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis18 BPCX
3
wEEd
wEEd17 BPCX
4
111
11110 BPCX
5
5kkkkkkusdt
5kkkkkkusdt7 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
joS_edge
joS_edge20 BPCX
2
InsaneHammock
InsaneHammock19 BPCX
3
heySI1
heySI118 BPCX
4
MMTrader
MMTrader17 BPCX
5
BlitheWits
BlitheWits15 BPCX
Awaiting summarization
Will trade between the U.S. and Russia be officially resumed by the end of the year?
Volume~$193
DescriptionVance’s statement regarding Trump’s intention to “resume trade” with Russia points to a possible revision of the sanctions regime should progress be made on the Ukraine front. The first easing of restrictions on the oil sector in March 2026 has already set a precedent. This forecast examines whether this strategy will lead to the official lifting or significant easing of trade restrictions (such as the resumption of civilian goods exports or the lifting of the embargo on key resources) by the end of 2026.
Conditions"Yes: if, by December 31, 2026 (inclusive), the United States officially lifts or suspends at least one set of major economic sanctions against the Russian Federation that impede bilateral trade.
No: if, by the end of 2026, the comprehensive U.S. trade sanctions regime against Russia remains in effect without change."
Event results
No results yet