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Will the U.S.-Iran peace agreement survive without termination until the end of 2026?
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YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionOn June 15, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced a peace deal with Iran and the lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, with the official signing of the document scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, experts point to stiff opposition to the agreement from radical circles in both countries and external players in the Middle East. The bet will be on whether the parties will manage to keep the agreements and avoid official denunciation (termination) or unilateral withdrawal from the agreement by the end of this year.
ConditionsYes: if, between June 19 and December 31, 2026, inclusive, the U.S.-Iran peace agreement continues to be formally in force and neither party announces withdrawal or cancellation.No: if, between now and December 31, 2026, the White House or Iran's leadership formally announces termination, suspension of the deal, or renewal of the reciprocal port blockade.
Timeline
OpenedJun 15, 2026, 7:18 AM
Closes
Jun 18, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJan 3, 2027, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 15, 2026, 7:18 AM
Closes
Jun 18, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJan 3, 2027, 8:59 PM
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Active
Will the U.S.-Iran peace agreement survive without termination until the end of 2026?
Volume~$0
DescriptionOn June 15, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced a peace deal with Iran and the lifting of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, with the official signing of the document scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, experts point to stiff opposition to the agreement from radical circles in both countries and external players in the Middle East. The bet will be on whether the parties will manage to keep the agreements and avoid official denunciation (termination) or unilateral withdrawal from the agreement by the end of this year.
ConditionsYes: if, between June 19 and December 31, 2026, inclusive, the U.S.-Iran peace agreement continues to be formally in force and neither party announces withdrawal or cancellation.No: if, between now and December 31, 2026, the White House or Iran's leadership formally announces termination, suspension of the deal, or renewal of the reciprocal port blockade.