Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the vaccine for birch pollen allergy be approved in the second quarter of 2026?
Volume~$178
YES chance
Description"Provisional registration of the allergy vaccine is scheduled for the second quarter of 2026. This was announced by Veronika Skvortsova, head of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency (FMBA).
‘We expect provisional registration in the second quarter of this year. At the same time, patient recruitment for the third phase of clinical trials is currently being finalized,” Skvortsova said at a press conference titled “Key Developments in the Life Sciences: From Discoveries to the Implementation of the National Strategy.”
The FMBA head noted that the agency intends to submit the vaccine for permanent registration after the 2026 pollen season.
The drug in question is “Allergarda.” As Skvortsova noted, it is the world’s first recombinant allergy vaccine for the treatment of birch pollen allergy and cross-reactive food allergies.
The FMBA approved clinical trials of the drug in mid-August 2024. Phase III clinical trials of the vaccine began in November 2025."
Conditions"Yes: if the vaccine for birch pollen allergy is officially registered by the end of the second quarter of 2026 (by June 30)
No: if the vaccine for birch pollen allergy has NOT been officially registered by June 30, 2026"
Timeline
OpenedFeb 10, 2026, 11:22 AM
Closes
Apr 1, 2026, 2:59 AMChecking results
—EndsJul 3, 2026, 2:59 AM
OpenedFeb 10, 2026, 11:22 AM
Closes
Apr 1, 2026, 2:59 AMChecking results
—EndsJul 3, 2026, 2:59 AM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
Anonymous
26 BPCX
2
InsaneHammock
InsaneHammock16 BPCX
3
ton_explore
ton_explore13 BPCX
4
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux11 BPCX
5
joS_edge
joS_edge10 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
heySI1
heySI130 BPCX
2
MotileGiro
MotileGiro21 BPCX
3
buba
buba19 BPCX
4
5kkkkkkusdt
5kkkkkkusdt13 BPCX
5
MMTrader
MMTrader4 BPCX
Event resultsView all
heySI1
boughtNoon a 30 BPCX
MotileGiro
boughtNoon a 21 BPCX
buba
boughtNoon a 19 BPCX
5kkkkkkusdt
boughtNoon a 13 BPCX
MMTrader
boughtNoon a 4 BPCX
wEEd
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
NastyAeolis
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the vaccine for birch pollen allergy be approved in the second quarter of 2026?
Volume~$178
Description"Provisional registration of the allergy vaccine is scheduled for the second quarter of 2026. This was announced by Veronika Skvortsova, head of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency (FMBA).
‘We expect provisional registration in the second quarter of this year. At the same time, patient recruitment for the third phase of clinical trials is currently being finalized,” Skvortsova said at a press conference titled “Key Developments in the Life Sciences: From Discoveries to the Implementation of the National Strategy.”
The FMBA head noted that the agency intends to submit the vaccine for permanent registration after the 2026 pollen season.
The drug in question is “Allergarda.” As Skvortsova noted, it is the world’s first recombinant allergy vaccine for the treatment of birch pollen allergy and cross-reactive food allergies.
The FMBA approved clinical trials of the drug in mid-August 2024. Phase III clinical trials of the vaccine began in November 2025."
Event resultsView all
heySI1
boughtNoon a 30 BPCX
MotileGiro
boughtNoon a 21 BPCX
buba
boughtNoon a 19 BPCX
5kkkkkkusdt
boughtNoon a 13 BPCX
MMTrader
boughtNoon a 4 BPCX
wEEd
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
NastyAeolis
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX