Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will a private Russian company successfully launch a satellite into orbit?
Volume~$228
YES chance
DescriptionThe private space industry in Russia is gaining momentum. After setbacks and lengthy preparations, one of the private companies (such as StartRocket or Success Rockets) could make a significant breakthrough by successfully launching a small satellite into sun-synchronous orbit, which would pave the way for commercial contracts.
Conditions“Yes,” if a Russian private company (not Roscosmos or its subsidiaries) successfully launches a launch vehicle between January 1 and February 28, 2026, resulting in the payload (satellite) is confirmed to have been placed into its target orbit and establishes communication.
“No” if the launch is unsuccessful, suborbital, or carried out by a government agency.
Timeline
OpenedNov 26, 2025, 8:20 AM
Closes
Feb 26, 2026, 2:59 AMChecking results
—EndsMar 3, 2026, 2:59 AM
OpenedNov 26, 2025, 8:20 AM
Closes
Feb 26, 2026, 2:59 AMChecking results
—EndsMar 3, 2026, 2:59 AM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
joS_edge
joS_edge30 BPCX
2
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux23 BPCX
3
MMTrader
MMTrader22 BPCX
4
5kkkkkkusdt
5kkkkkkusdt19 BPCX
5
ShrillManipur
ShrillManipur19 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis20 BPCX
2
MotileGiro
MotileGiro20 BPCX
3
wEEd
wEEd19 BPCX
4
111
11116 BPCX
5
FirmGang
FirmGang12 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will a private Russian company successfully launch a satellite into orbit?
Volume~$228
DescriptionThe private space industry in Russia is gaining momentum. After setbacks and lengthy preparations, one of the private companies (such as StartRocket or Success Rockets) could make a significant breakthrough by successfully launching a small satellite into sun-synchronous orbit, which would pave the way for commercial contracts.
Conditions“Yes,” if a Russian private company (not Roscosmos or its subsidiaries) successfully launches a launch vehicle between January 1 and February 28, 2026, resulting in the payload (satellite) is confirmed to have been placed into its target orbit and establishes communication.
“No” if the launch is unsuccessful, suborbital, or carried out by a government agency.
Event resultsView all
NastyAeolis
boughtNoon a 20 BPCX
MotileGiro
boughtNoon a 20 BPCX
wEEd
boughtNoon a 19 BPCX
111
boughtNoon a 16 BPCX
FirmGang
boughtNoon a 12 BPCX
heySI1
boughtNoon a 6 BPCX