Completed
The winning outcome:
YES
Will Iran's new Supreme Leader be announced by the end of the week?
Volume~$99
YES chance
DescriptionFollowing the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi has been appointed interim leader, and the country is effectively being governed by a transitional council. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi stated on March 1 that the election process has already begun and could take just a few days. However, the Assembly of Experts is facing unprecedented pressure due to ongoing airstrikes and the need to rally the elite behind a successor (Mohtaba Khamenei and Ali Larijani are among the candidates mentioned). This scenario tests the system’s ability to quickly fill a power vacuum in the midst of war.
Conditions"Yes: if, by March 8, 2026, the Council of Experts officially announces the name of Iran’s new permanent Supreme Leader (Rahbar).
No: if no successor is named by that date, and power remains with the interim council or the acting leader."
Timeline
OpenedMar 2, 2026, 11:12 PM
Closes
Mar 5, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 9, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 2, 2026, 11:12 PM
Closes
Mar 5, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsMar 9, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
LeeryFaust
LeeryFaust75 BPCX
2
MotileGiro
MotileGiro9 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
joS_edge
joS_edge9 BPCX
2
SuperNancy
SuperNancy5 BPCX
3
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
YES
Will Iran's new Supreme Leader be announced by the end of the week?
Volume~$99
DescriptionFollowing the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi has been appointed interim leader, and the country is effectively being governed by a transitional council. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi stated on March 1 that the election process has already begun and could take just a few days. However, the Assembly of Experts is facing unprecedented pressure due to ongoing airstrikes and the need to rally the elite behind a successor (Mohtaba Khamenei and Ali Larijani are among the candidates mentioned). This scenario tests the system’s ability to quickly fill a power vacuum in the midst of war.
Event resultsView all
LeeryFaust
boughtYeson a 75 BPCX
MotileGiro
boughtYeson a 9 BPCX