Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will we see “Black Sea Heat” in Sochi and in southern Russia?
Volume~$22
YES chance
DescriptionIn March 2026, southern Russia will be under the influence of warm air masses from the Mediterranean. For those planning an early vacation or remote work from Sochi, this is the main indicator of a “resort” atmosphere. Historically, a temperature of +20°C in early March in Sochi is a rare occurrence (the average is around +12...+14°C), but given current climate shifts, the likelihood of a record-breaking temperature is high.
Conditions"Yes: if, on any day between March 1, 2026, and March 15, 2026, the maximum daily temperature in Sochi (at the airport or city weather station) reaches or exceeds +20.0°C at least once during that period
No: if, over the entire period, the highest recorded temperature does not rise above +19.9°C"
Timeline
OpenedFeb 20, 2026, 1:01 PM
Closes
Feb 26, 2026, 2:59 AMChecking results
—EndsMar 17, 2026, 2:59 AM
OpenedFeb 20, 2026, 1:01 PM
Closes
Feb 26, 2026, 2:59 AMChecking results
—EndsMar 17, 2026, 2:59 AM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
HarshGuest
HarshGuest1 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
MotileGiro
MotileGiro21 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will we see “Black Sea Heat” in Sochi and in southern Russia?
Volume~$22
DescriptionIn March 2026, southern Russia will be under the influence of warm air masses from the Mediterranean. For those planning an early vacation or remote work from Sochi, this is the main indicator of a “resort” atmosphere. Historically, a temperature of +20°C in early March in Sochi is a rare occurrence (the average is around +12...+14°C), but given current climate shifts, the likelihood of a record-breaking temperature is high.
Conditions"Yes: if, on any day between March 1, 2026, and March 15, 2026, the maximum daily temperature in Sochi (at the airport or city weather station) reaches or exceeds +20.0°C at least once during that period
No: if, over the entire period, the highest recorded temperature does not rise above +19.9°C"
Event resultsView all
MotileGiro
boughtNoon a 21 BPCX