Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will ARM China launch an IPO in Hong Kong with a valuation exceeding 40 billion by the end of 2025?
Volume~$16
YES chance
DescriptionARM China is a key player in the semiconductor market. An IPO in Hong Kong with a valuation of over $40 billion would be a major event, demonstrating investor confidence in the future of China’s tech sector and the company, despite geopolitical tensions surrounding semiconductors.
ConditionsThe condition will be met if ARM China officially conducts an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and its market capitalization on the first day of trading exceeds $40 billion by December 31, 2025. The outcome will be “No” if the IPO does not take place or if the valuation is lower.
Verification: Official data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX), prospectus.
Timeline
OpenedNov 11, 2025, 12:49 AM
Closes
Dec 30, 2025, 9:00 PMChecking results
—EndsDec 30, 2025, 9:00 PM
OpenedNov 11, 2025, 12:49 AM
Closes
Dec 30, 2025, 9:00 PMChecking results
—EndsDec 30, 2025, 9:00 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
wEEd
wEEd4 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
heySI1
heySI17 BPCX
2
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis5 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will ARM China launch an IPO in Hong Kong with a valuation exceeding 40 billion by the end of 2025?
Volume~$16
DescriptionARM China is a key player in the semiconductor market. An IPO in Hong Kong with a valuation of over $40 billion would be a major event, demonstrating investor confidence in the future of China’s tech sector and the company, despite geopolitical tensions surrounding semiconductors.
ConditionsThe condition will be met if ARM China officially conducts an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and its market capitalization on the first day of trading exceeds $40 billion by December 31, 2025. The outcome will be “No” if the IPO does not take place or if the valuation is lower.
Verification: Official data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX), prospectus.
Event resultsView all
heySI1
boughtNoon a 7 BPCX
NastyAeolis
boughtNoon a 5 BPCX