Active
Will the European Commission publish new guidelines on paying for Russian gas through intermediaries in July 2026?
Volume~$51
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionIn June 2026, a decree came into effect in Russia allowing foreign companies to pay for gas through any Russian banks and intermediaries until October, bypassing Gazprombank, which is subject to sanctions. This move allows European importers who are still purchasing Russian pipeline gas to continue transactions without violating their countries’ domestic laws. However, Brussels may view this decision as an attempt to circumvent U.S. sanctions. The key question is whether the European Commission (EC) will issue official written clarifications or a directive in July regarding the legitimacy of gas payments made through intermediary entities.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 1 and July 31, 2026, new official clarifications or legal recommendations from the European Commission regarding gas payments to Russia via alternative banks are published on the European Commission’s official website or in leading global financial media outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg).No: if no new official documents, directives, or public clarifications on this matter are issued by the European Commission during July 2026.
Timeline
OpenedJun 15, 2026, 9:42 PM
Closes
Jun 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 15, 2026, 9:42 PM
Closes
Jun 30, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
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Voted for YES
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MotileGiro
MotileGiro24 BPCX
Voted for NO
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BlitheWits
BlitheWits27 BPCX
Active
Will the European Commission publish new guidelines on paying for Russian gas through intermediaries in July 2026?
Volume~$51
DescriptionIn June 2026, a decree came into effect in Russia allowing foreign companies to pay for gas through any Russian banks and intermediaries until October, bypassing Gazprombank, which is subject to sanctions. This move allows European importers who are still purchasing Russian pipeline gas to continue transactions without violating their countries’ domestic laws. However, Brussels may view this decision as an attempt to circumvent U.S. sanctions. The key question is whether the European Commission (EC) will issue official written clarifications or a directive in July regarding the legitimacy of gas payments made through intermediary entities.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 1 and July 31, 2026, new official clarifications or legal recommendations from the European Commission regarding gas payments to Russia via alternative banks are published on the European Commission’s official website or in leading global financial media outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg).No: if no new official documents, directives, or public clarifications on this matter are issued by the European Commission during July 2026.